Tuesday, May 4, 2021

2021 Talguard Annual Letter To Investors By Dan H. Chen

Your investment continues to grow and work for you. We are off to a great start in 2021.  We continue to outperform the competition of other private hedge funds as you see Talguard crushing the Barclay Hedge Fund Index yet again.  Note the whole point of the hedge fund industry is to guard asset values and to outperform the Markets during downturns.  Talguard not only outperformed the Markets in last year's downturn, but we also outperformed the hedge fund industry as well.  We also significantly outperformed both the Barclay Hedge Fund Index and the Markets on the way back up as well.
 
Technology:
I am a big fan of technology and the role it plays in improving human standards of living.  Tech will also play an integral role in solving problems facing mankind such as resource shortages and global warming effects.  As an investor, I look for companies with durable competitive advantages in this sector as I always do for any investment.  One drawback for tech, it has a lot of companies with negative cash flow or inconsistent cash flow.  Those companies are to be avoided.
 
I have favored software and financial technology companies (known as “Fin Tech”) in the Technology Industry.  Software and Fin Tech companies have shown high returns on equity with lower capital expenditures (“cap-ex”) than pure hardware companies.  More importantly, many of these software and fintech companies have subscription based models which I like.  Tech hardware is similar to the canvas for artists.  In contrast, software is similar to the artist who paints on that canvas and creates the most value in the process of creating a piece of artwork. 

Software and Fin Tech margins are often higher and they tend to have longer staying power.  Too often hardware becomes commoditized and it is harder to stay on top.  This does not mean all hardware companies are bad investments.  There are hardware companies doing well but these are companies that have other divisions such as software or artificial intelligence which helps form an ecosystem. 
 
I am not a fan of cryptocurrency or special purpose acquisition corporation (“SPAC”) companies.  A side note on SPACs – the premise of asking for a blind check committed to putting 100% of that capital into one company within a short term period of time is ludicrous.  Those investments usually do not end well for their investors and you are already seeing a number of those SPAC stock prices get pummeled.
 
Health Care:
For the Health Care sector - pharmaceutical, mature biotech, and medical device companies are my circle of competence.  These companies continue to generate steady cash flows with above average dividends that are growing.  The pandemic has put renewed focus on vaccines.  The mRNA technology in my view will become the dominant vaccine technology in the long run.  This new mRNA technology can be applied to address other diseases.  They can be manufactured much faster than traditional vaccines which require incubating them in eggs. 
 
Traditional egg vaccine production is like farming which takes time.  Contrast that with mRNA vaccine production which is manufactured assembly line style similar to a factory product.  Economies of scale favor mRNA in the long run.  Efficacy is much higher for preventing severe symptoms and milder symptoms.  The third mRNA advantage is the avoidance of severe reactions that both AstraZeneca and Johnson & Johnson egg vaccines have had.  

In defense of J&J, very few severe reactions have occurred out of 7 million doses administered thus far.  However, this serves to further reinforce that the mRNA technology has another edge over traditional egg vaccines.  Egg vaccines do have the advantages of one shot convenience, higher storage temperatures, and it has a much longer history.  We also still do not know the long term effects of the mRNA vaccines, whether there are unknown side effects and how long efficacy lasts.  However, in the long run my view is that mRNA’s advantages in efficacy and faster production will win out.

Financial Services:
The Financial Services sector has suffered through years of underperformance due to the effects of the 2008 financial crisis and a super cycle of falling interest rates for the past 40 years.  The reopening of economies and new inflationary pressures will benefit this sector.  This will put pressure on interest rates to rise and thus a number of these companies should be able to charge more for their services outpacing the interest they pay on deposits, especially banks.
 
Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples:
There has been a real see-saw between the Consumer Discretionary and Consumer Staples sectors in recent years.  As the pandemic spread to engulf the World, consumer staples and other defensive stocks did well.  This started to change when vaccine trials came in with positive results and it accelerated after vaccines were approved.  This is when consumer discretionary stocks started to do well in anticipation of an economic recovery. 

Industrials:
The Industrials sector is in a good place due to reopening economies and several large scale global projects.  The U.S. is looking to spend approximately $2 trillion on infrastructure.  China has its $100 billion belt and road initiative which is a modern silk road and maritime Silk Road and its city development projects.  China has also lent billions to countries in Africa and South America in exchange for access to natural resources.  In response, the U.S. is looking to work with Western Europe to create a counter to China’s infrastructure initiative.  Indeed it is an exciting time for companies in construction and infrastructure.
 
Housing:
The Housing Sector is in a peculiar spot.  There has been a long term deficit of housing for the U.S.’s population for some time.  This is especially true in West Coast cities.  Much of the housing shortage can be explained by strict laws on new developments.  A second mega trend that is more global in nature is the migration of humans to cities and urban metropolises.  The COVID pandemic reversed this trend for the past 15 months.  Some of this reversal is here to stay as the rise of online communication technologies has created more options for working remotely.  We will see how much housing stock comes online in the years ahead.  We need a building boom similar to post World War II for the country’s housing supply to catch up to demand.  Otherwise, you will continue to see more multi-generational families and higher roommate counts living under one household.  The big question is where people want to live post pandemic between urban and rural areas.
 
North America:
The U.S. is gifted with favorable geography that works to its economic benefit.  It is surrounded by oceans and by only two neighbors, both of which are weaker on a military basis and are allies.  The U.S. is a naval power in both the Atlantic and Pacific Oceans. The U.S. has plentiful deep water ports on both shores and navigable rivers.  America also owns the most productive farmland in the world.  All these geographic advantages means the U.S. can concentrate on business.  Meanwhile, other major powers such as China, Japan, Russia, and western European Countries are surrounded by strong competitors.  

Image of a co-working office with desks and light bulbs hanging above.  Another advantage the U.S. has is an entrepreneur spirit that is ferocious and tenacious.
Another advantage the U.S. has is an entrepreneur spirit that is ferocious and tenacious.

Another advantage the U.S. has is an entrepreneur spirit that is ferocious and tenacious.  Pound for pound, the U.S. has produced more global companies and brands than any other country in history.  This is facilitated by institutions created by our democracy that protects property and is conducive to launching businesses with economies of scale.  More importantly, these businesses produce brands that are able to cross oceans and political borders.  This spirit is made possible by our institutions that protect asset rights and a legal system that has relatively low corruption.  This encourages people to work hard because there is a way to gain due to merit. 

The economic freedom to invent and create has attracted diverse talented people from around the world, many whom seek to create a better life for themselves and for their loved ones.  A survey asking people around the world if money and immigration limitations were not an issue, what country would they chose to immigrate.  The overwhelming answer was the United States.  Other than Native Americans, we are truly a country of immigrants.  To me, we as a country and as a people is the greatest large scale experiment in the history of mankind.
 
All this leads to show how the U.S. has tremendous economic advantages that one should consider when seeking quality companies for investments around the world. 
 
Asia and Oceania:
Asia and Oceania have a number of large economies with investment opportunities such as China, Japan, India, South Korea, and Australia.  This region also has a number of mid-sized economies that produce quality companies such as Russia, New Zealand, and the Southeast Nations.  It has a world wonder of a city-state called Singapore founded and developed by the legendary Lee Kuan Yew.   I highly encourage you to read his autobiography.
 
China has been of particular interest to me and it has been a great place to look for investment opportunities.  As a country, its stock market is relatively small for the size of its economy.  China produces a number of high cash flow companies with durable competitive advantages.  However, very few Chinese companies have been able to expand beyond serving Chinese citizens and Chinese people living abroad.  What you have to be careful on is financial clarity.  Financial reporting standards are less stringent and you have to work harder to uncover detailed financial data.  However, if you know what to look for, China is an ocean of opportunity. 
 
One interesting note is that China was the only large economy to post a positive economic gain in 2020 due to its success in containing its COVID outbreak.  China’s vaccines are not as effective as the U.S. vaccines but it has more effective contact tracing and control of outbreaks.  Time will tell how China handles future variants of COVID. I suspect China will do fine considering their success in containing not just COVID but also SARS.
 
Europe:
Europe has seen a resurgence in new COVID cases across a number of countries.  Masks have not been required in some European countries and many in the population just do not take this pandemic seriously.  Furthermore, there are a number of densely populated cities which appear to spread COVID faster.  On the other hand, I am a big fan of Europe and have every reason to believe they will pull out of this.  Europe should recover economically soon as vaccines become more available.  There are solid opportunities in Europe for investments as always.  Europe has some of the world’s leading cosmetics, pharmaceuticals, food, personal hygiene, fashion, industrials, and automobile manufacturer companies.

Returning the World Back To Normal:
As I predicted, most of the companies that benefited from the pandemic and initial mass lock downs would struggle as vaccines were approved and mass produced. Not to mention, there has been a huge pent up demand for getting back out on the road and re-engaging with society and the world. 
 
Many people are just tired and weary of staying at home all day, every day.  Some people are traveling again, mostly for leisure and to see loved ones.  However, many people remain at home.  As the vaccine roll out continues in the U.S., there will come a turning point where airline, hotel, and attraction demand greatly increases.  For me, the tipping point will be when enough Americans are vaccinated and the people at those destinations are also vaccinated.  Once vaccination rates pick up and cases come down around the world, there will be the largest mass human travel in human history.  People are so ready to travel to make up for lost time.  Plus, many will want to squeeze as much travel time in because of fear of future outbreaks and other disasters.
 
There are two major hurdles now to reaching herd immunity.  One is that a portion of the U.S. population will not take the vaccine.  They are either distrustful of the vaccine or the government.  It is too bad COVID vaccines have become politicized.  Everyone takes the Measles vaccine so why not mandate the COVID vaccine as well.  Others are working hard at day jobs and simply have not had time to go get the vaccine during work hours. 
 
The second major hurdle will be getting the vaccines approved for children under 16.   It won’t matter how many adults are vaccinated.  Many parents will not feel safe to travel as a family or for their kids to return to school until the children are vaccinated.  Right now, the Pfizer COVID vaccine is approved for 16 years olds and up.  Moderna is 17 years old and up.  Pfizer has already reported a study where their COVID vaccine is 100% effective and safe for children 12 to 15 years and have submitted a request to the FDA for approval.  It took the FDA three weeks to approve the Pfizer and Moderna vaccines after they were submitted for emergency use.  It has now been four weeks since Pfizer submitted their application for 12 to 15 years old.  I am optimistic approval will come soon.
 
Next will be younger children from 5 to 11 years old that they are testing now.  This is the number one question on many parents minds.  Once children are vaccinated, then you will really see the spigot open for economic activity, especially travel.  Parents can get back to work a lot easier as the return to schools will be safer.
We also need to help the rest of the world get vaccinated.  Israel, the United Arab Emirates, Gibraltar and Bahrain have the majority of their population vaccinated already or have at least one vaccine shot.  The U.S. is close behind.  However, countries such as India, France, and Brazil continue to be hit hard with COVID outbreaks.  In fact daily COVID cases are actually rising which is a tragedy given we have multiple approved vaccines that are proven to be effective.

We as a human race just need to watch out for deadly new variants of COVID.  The good news is that mRNA vaccines appear to be generally effective against known deadly variants now.  Plus Pfizer and Moderna are already testing booster shots.  Most likely, we will all get booster shots every 9 to 12 months going forward similar to the annual flu shots now.  For future outbreaks, COVID will be more of a known enemy and we have tools to investigate and combat it quicker than the first time around when COVID was a novel virus.  Furthermore, mRNA technology can be applied to other existing viruses or tailored to new yet-to-be-seen viruses.
 
What’s Next:
There is so much pent up energy right now to get back to activities that people miss such as indoor dining, traveling, concerts, and sporting events.  Many businesses will return to the office with some employees allowed to work partially from home.  I do not think it is viable for large companies to be completely remote.  However, long haul business travel where you travel for many hours for a short meeting will not return to pre-pandemic levels anytime soon.  It will be interesting to see how many industry conferences come back.  I suspect many industries can’t wait for their conferences to take place again.  There is a certain camaraderie and energy that you cannot replicate with internet meetings.
 
As we come out of the pandemic, we will march on with my investment strategies.  There are large pockets of irrational exuberance in stocks, real estate, cryptocurrency, and debt investments.  Some of that has shaken out but many are still overvalued.  Even with this current environment, I continue to find quality companies with reasonable valuations available.   They are reasonable because they are often ignored by the Market and are not talked about much by the media or by online retail forums.  They are also reasonable because sometimes they have idiosyncratic or industry specific problems that can be solved.

Most of the time, the Market is rationally forward looking.  It is when the Market overshoots on the upside and downside for price movement that often creates the most interesting investment opportunities.  The Stock Market crashed in February and March of 2020 even though COVID cases were just surging.  Now Markets have surged and continue to surge even though there are more cases now than the past and millions are still unemployed. 
 
Conclusion:
The main concern right now is an overheating global economy causing high inflation to the prices of goods and services.  Our investments in the equities of quality companies is the best way to outpace inflation and to guard against inflation.  When inflation happens, and it is happening now, only companies with durable competitive advantages can raise prices for their products and services to outpace it. 
 
Interest rates will rise and Central Banks will be forced to take action against low rates.  Debt investments such as Treasury bonds are going to get smashed as interest rates rise.  Commodities should do well but those underperform stocks in the long run.  Real estate does well too in a rising rate environment but historically real estate is the second best performer behind stocks.  Speculative assets that have no cash flow underperform cash flow stocks over the long run.  I will continue to steer our ship and guide Talguard through these uncertain waters.
 
My investment strategy has helped us play defense in big downturns such as the one earlier this year.  My strategy has also helped us play offense when stock prices were depressed.   What the future holds is never certain.  What we offer at Talguard is a long term investment strategy that seeks to preserve and grow wealth over time.
 
My goal is to survive the one year that no one else does.  2020 was that year as Talguard preserved and grew our capital double digits.  COVID is still with us and will likely linger for years to come.  But we will continue to march on as seen with our double digit returns so far in 2021.

We now turn the page to the second half of 2021 and the decade ahead.  If history rhymes like it does most of the time, expect more volatility ahead.  The recovery will be bumpy.  All this money printing by Central Banks will have ramifications.  As the old saying goes, “the piper has to be paid.”   On the flip side, for many people there is pent up energy and restlessness to get out there and re-engage and explore the world. 
 
There is no doubt about it, COVID-19 has been a tragedy for many families and it has created scars in the collective conscience of humans.  Approved vaccines are little comfort for those who lost loved ones.  The only solace is that there is a light at the end of the tunnel for those still living.  We just have to make sure we reach that light, everyone together.
 
Until next time, I hope you and your family stay safe and happy.
 
Best,
Dan H. Chen
President
Talguard Investments LLC
 
Disclaimer Statement:
This document and information herein represents the views of Talguard Investments LLC and is not to be considered investment advice.  The information herein should not be considered a recommendation to purchase or sell any particular security or financial instrument.  There can be no assurance that any securities discussed herein will remain in the Talguard Value Fund LP. 
 
This document does not constitute an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy membership interests in the Talguard Value Fund LP.  Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results.  All information provided herein is for informational purposes only. 

Investment in the Fund will involve significant risks due to, among other things, the nature of the Fund’s Investments (as defined herein). Investment in the Fund is suitable only for sophisticated investors and requires the financial ability and willingness to accept the high risks in an investment in the Fund. No assurance can be given that the Fund’s investment objectives will be achieved or that investors will receive a return of their capital.
 
In making an investment decision, prospective investors must rely on their own examination of the Fund and the terms of this offering, including the merits and risks involved. Prospective investors should not construe the contents of this letter as legal, tax, investment or accounting advice. Prospective investors are urged to consult with their own advisors with respect to legal, tax, regulatory, financial and accounting consequences of their investment in the Fund.
 
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